Ready, Fire, Aim! - Mihail's Public Blog

Latinos and Blacks now both comprise roughly 13% of the US population according to this San Francisco Chronicle story. Whether Latinos now surpass blacks is a matter of how you interpret the numbers since the country's population doesn't always fit into neat little boxes on a form:

Latinos have become the nation's largest minority group. Or do African Americans still hold that position? It depends on how you look at the numbers, released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

...Also Tuesday, the Census Bureau released population estimates broken down by age. It found that the median age of the U.S. population -- the point at which half the population is younger and the other half older -- rose from 35. 3 to 35.6.

The stories continue to appear in print and real life as many friends remain out of work a year, even two, after their last dotcom went bust. A depressing story in the San Francisco Chronicle about the Depression hitting us here:

Last week, Frank (not his real name) took a job for minimum wage. A fortysomething Web engineer who has worked for some of the biggest dot-coms, Frank had come to expect that his nearly 100K-a-year income -- and his whole sense of himself as a professional -- was assured. But now that he's been out of work for a year, he simmers with suppressed energy....

So he took the job with the teenage-level pay, even though he considers it a humiliation. An exploitation. Eighteen months ago, this same job would have paid him $80,000, and now it yields $18,000 with benefits. "I don't view it as a real job," he shrugs, "but it's in my field, so I'll go with it." He picks at the cushions on the sofa and gets to the real reason he's taking the job: "If you're not making money, you're nothing in this culture."

A San Francisco Chronicle story from last week about Sheryl Oring who's been working on this art for the last five years buying up the 600 typewriters that make up the work. It has been displayed in various cities including at the site of the 1933 Nazi book burnings in Berlin.

That is how art works, says the San Francisco woman who collected the typewriters, broke the typewriters and jammed the typewriters into 21 huge metal cages. It was a challenging thing to do, because great art should be challenging....

"It's a symbolic statement about the meaning of the free flow of ideas," said Oring, a forthright woman who has sunk nearly $100,000 of her own money into the project, a sum which can make even an artist forget that artists are not supposed to talk about symbolism and meaning.

I'm getting increasingly worried about this since there's quite a bit of news surrounding identity theft cases. According to an AP story in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) this consumer fraud nearly doubled last year and topped the government's list of consumer frauds for the third consecutive year.

However, these stats may have been impacted by the growing awareness of consumers and so may not be truly accurate on a year to year basis. Fraud in Internet auctions came in second and accounted for some 13% of all complaints (in fact, eBay and the FBI work closely together on this growing problem).

The Federal Trade Commission said Wednesday that 43% of about 380,000 complaints involved the hijacking of someone's identity information, such as a credit card or Social Security number, to steal money or commit fraud.

...Up to 700,000 people in the U.S. may be victimized by identity bandits each year, the Justice Department said. It costs the average victim more than $1,000 in expenses to cope with the damage to their accounts and reputations, the FTC has said.

Attorney General John Ashcroft seems to be doing something right by asking federal prosecutors to speed up investigations and trials related to this crime and California Senator Dianne Feinstein is about to introduce several bills related to this issue.

Walt Mossberg discusses wireless keyboard and mouse combos from Logitech and Microsoft in today's Wall Street Journal. What I don't understand is why these systems require a wired base receiver. I want to get rid of all wires...so I hope soon all laptops will come with the receiver built in. Two of the three systems use a short-range wireless radio system that extends about six feet and the other, which was not recommended, uses Bluetooth. They're about $100 or less for the wireless keyboard and mouse.

Like standalone wireless mice, the wireless desktops use a small receiver that plugs into a PC's normal mouse and keyboard jacks and can be placed on or under the desk. The battery-powered keyboards and mice transmit key presses and mouse movements and clicks wirelessly to the receiver. All of the keyboards come with built-in buttons and dials to control your PC's audio and video playback functions, and to launch your e-mail program, Web browser, instant messenger and other programs.

More stats on how bad this downturn has hit the San Francisco Bay Area according to this New York Times story (registration required):

Silicon Valley lost 127,000 jobs, or about 9 percent of its employment, from the first quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2002, according to a report to be published Monday by Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a nonprofit group formed to promote the area.

Job losses in the period equaled more than half the total job gains for the valley from 1998 to 2000. Losses were particularly acute among those industries the survey defined as "driving" clusters — software, semiconductors and computer and communications hardware — which lost 22 percent of their jobs from the second quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2002.

[Correction, Verizon's been ordered to do this but it will not comply the appeals process is finished and a final verdict decided upon. As the CNN Technology Correspondent pointed out today this strategy is a signficant change on the part of RIAA which had until now just gone after the peer-to-peer software makers like Napster and Kazaa and the ISPs]

According to a Wall Street Journal story (subscription required) Verizon has been ordered to turn over the name of "an Internet subscriber who allegedly made songs broadly available online."

In a written opinion, Judge John D. Bates said that he granted the "RIAA's motion to enforce, and orders Verizon to comply with the properly issued and supported subpoena from RIAA seeking the identity of the alleged infringer."

The new Apple and its strategies to remain relevant are detailed in this Wall Street Journal story by Lee Gomes (subscription required) in which he speaks of feeling "a shiver of Apple envy that [he] hadn't felt in years." He asks:

How do you compete with Microsoft? One way is to get others to do some of your work for you. Apple these days is using a lot of freely available "open-source" software. The core of its new browser, Safari, is from an open-source project called KDE.

Apple has also hired boatloads of programmers, including some open-source big shots. Application software now has its own division. There is even a group that keeps a version of Apple's OS X operating system available for running on Intel machines. The effort is part of Apple's open-source commitment, but could also be useful if the company ever decides to switch from the PowerPC microprocessor.

This comes as a result of being forced to part ways with the New York Times Company, its international partner in the International Herald Tribune, with a circulation war underway for English speakers abroad according to this New York Times story (registration required):

The Wall Street Journal's editions in Europe and Asia will shortly begin daily publication of a small selection of news and opinion articles from The Washington Post as part of a deal announced yesterday.

The announcement, by the Washington Post Company and The Journal's parent, Dow Jones & Company, comes two weeks after The Post's loss of its prime international platform, a 50 percent stake in The International Herald Tribune, which was bought out by its partner, The New York Times Company.

Investors have long demanded that Microsoft part with some of its cash hoarding by paying them dividends. In a surprise move that's exactly what the company is going to begin doing albeit on a small scale according to this New York Times story (registration required):

The company also announced that it would split its stock 2 for 1. Financially, the annual dividend of 16 cents a share, before the split, amounts to corporate pocket change. Microsoft's two largest shareholders, Mr. Gates and Mr. Ballmer, will receive yearly dividends of $97.9 million and $37.6 million, respectively, based on their current holdings. The annual dividend payout will cost Microsoft about $856 million a year.

Today, Microsoft sits on a cash pile totaling $43.4 billion, and its business generates cash at the rate of $1 billion a month.

eBay continues to do well. 4th Quarter estimates were blown away and total revenue came close to the revenue of a leading offline retailer according to this New York Times story (registration required):

For the full year, eBay earned $249.9 million, up from $90.4 million a year ago. Sales increased 62 percent, to $1.21 billion.

Yesterday, eBay raised its projections, predicting 2003 revenue of $1.9 billion and earnings per share of $1.12. Those numbers implied that its already high profit margins will continue to increase.

Last year, a total of $14.9 billion worth of merchandise was sold on eBay. That is just shy of the $15.5 billion in sales analysts expect this year for Federated Department stores, the parent of Macy's.

In the absence of any strong competition that was expected from Blockbuster and Walmart by investors, NetFlix showed excellent growth according to this Wall Street Journal story (subscription required) and is projecting up to 1 million subscribers in the first quarter.

NetFlix had about 857,000 subscribers at the end of the fourth quarter, up 88% from 456,000 a year earlier, and up 15% from the third quarter's 742,000 subscribers.

...Average monthly subscriber churn was 6.3%, down from 7.2% in the third quarter, and slightly up from 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2001. The figure is closely watched by investors because a higher churn rate -- the percentage of existing and trial customers who cancel their service -- can lead to higher marketing costs and slower growth.

I know, I know, that's blasphemy but reading about the new PowerBooks in this Wall Street Journal review (subscription required) and seeing the ads plastered around downtown San Francisco makes me yearn for a PowerBook...but it is just too much of a hassle that it doesn't run Windows. I wish the two companies would somehow figure out how to work together much, much more closely.

Not sure thought what's going to happen with Jobs' desire to make Apple the Sony of computers since it seems that Sony itself may become the Sony of computers. I was at Costco and saw a great looking Sony computer with a flat screen monitor...and of course I'm the proud owner of a Sony Clie Palm handheld which is by far one of the best designed handhelds on the market.

The 12-inch PowerBook is one sweet little laptop. Sheathed in an aluminum case, it has the feel of a finely made camera. And it's the smallest notebook I've tested that sports a full range of features, including one I've never seen on a compact laptop. Yet it's significantly less expensive than some comparable Windows laptops.

...The machine abounds with the kind of clever design touches for which Apple is known. CDs and DVDs are sucked into the machine through a slot, like in an auto CD player, so there's no protruding tray. The rear hinge dips down so the screen sets lower than on other laptops, making it even more compact for use in tight spaces.

 

Yahoo is planning to offer broadband services throughout the country according to Yahoo CEO Terry Semel according to this New York Times story (registration required):

Fee-based services were the fastest-growing area for Yahoo. It said it had a combined total of 2.2 million subscribers for its broadband service; a dial-up Internet service, also offered with SBC; its rapidly growing online personals service; and a range of other, smaller offerings. That is up from 375,000 subscribers a year ago. Revenue from those services, which also includes the HotJobs site it acquired in January 2002, was $9.4 million. Excluding HotJobs, that represented a 65 percent increase.

...Safa Rashtchy, an analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said that such deals had the potential to be significant for Yahoo. "SBC hasn't produced a lot of revenue for Yahoo yet, but we estimate it will be $100 million this year," he said. "If they get the other two-thirds of the country, that could be $300 million a year."

The rise of online directions and the frustrations with and shortcomings of them are covered in this New York Times story (registration required):

MapQuest, a subsidiary of AOL, is by far the most popular such site, with 22 million visitors a month. Every day, the site produces 10 million individual maps and sets of directions.

...Joel Minster, a senior vice president at Rand McNally, said online maps have not hurt the company's business. "As a matter of fact," Mr. Minster said, "what we're seeing is that people are more comfortable with maps and come to expect them more." And what does frustration with online maps drive people to do? "They go buy a real map," he said.

The program, known as Total Information Awareness, would mine the databases of American telephone, financial and travel companies, retailers and other concerns for patterns that suggest terrorist activity.

...The groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the American Conservative Union, said the surveillance program "would put the details of Americans' daily lives under the scrutiny of government agents, opening the door to a massive domestic surveillance system." The letter urged that Congress stop the system or at least delay it for "a closer look."

From Vin Crosbie on Poynter.org some stats on the world's online population:

ComputerScope Limited's Nua Internet Surveys, which for years has been compiling Internet population figures, reports that out of 605.6 million Internet users worldwide, 190.91 million are European, 187.24 million are in Asia or Australia, and 182.67 million are American or Canadian. Indeed, the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) reported that its national population of Internet users almost doubled during 2002 to 58 million people. At that rate, Asians should be the largest online population by the end of this year.

Walter Mossberg writes about the growing array of clothing made with special pockets and compartments according to this Wall Street Journal story (subscription required) -- a la the old Safari/Photographer's Vest of the 70s or 80s which I still own -- which I also just saw on a friend's new jacket this Christmas.

You know the scenario: A cellphone rings and someone scrambles to find the phone in a bottomless purse or bag. She detangles and then attaches her "hands-free" headset to the phone and finally starts talking if the caller hasn't hung up yet. Or someone who uses multiple digital devices can't seem to remember in which pocket he crammed his Global Positioning Service-enabled Palm Pilot in time to turn right on Michigan Avenue.

But now, the clothing industry -- or a tiny branch of it -- has come up with garments specifically designed for toting all these gadgets and using them conveniently. These items range from marketing gimmicks to impressive new technology, and my assistant, Katie, and I have been trying out some of them. To our surprise, they didn't make us look as geeky as we'd feared they might.

A great David Kilpatrick column on Dell in Fortune. According to him the recent news that Dell has started selling cash registers should not have come as any surprise:

I asked President Kevin Rollins, who jointly runs the company with CEO Michael Dell, what was least understood about Dell. His answer: "People have to understand the value of the model [Dell's business model] and the sustainability of it. There is a nearly unlimited list of products to which it could be applied."

"There are millions of industry-standard products - just march through every consumer electronic profit pool, corporate electronics, services. We represent in the PC space something like 14% of the total information technology spend from corporations and individuals. That leaves a lot of room for us to grow. You've got software and services and many, many hardware devices -- even things like cell phones and cameras and video recorders. It just goes on and on and on -- projectors, new handhelds...Every day there's a new viable product category. People sometimes say that Dell's growth is going to start coming to an end, but there is a resilience here that people keep missing."

I still hadn't mastered that awful handwriting recognition system on my Sony Clie running Palm OS...in fact I was having problems writing the letter "y" just yesterday. So I was thrilled to read this Forbes story (thanks to Silicon Alley Reporter) that Palm will soon start to use a more natural and easier to learn system.

The company on Monday set plans to build new handwriting recognition technology, which lets users enter data by writing alphabet-like symbols on the screen, into its its software, spurred by a long-standing patent infringement legal battle with office equipment maker Xerox Corp. (nyse: XRX - news - people)

PalmSource, the software arm of dominant handheld computer maker Palm, said it signed an agreement with Communication Intelligence Corp. (nasdaq: CICI - news - people), to license CIC's "Jot" handwriting recognition software, and embed it in its Palm OS operating system. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed.