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FineYoungSinger -here's the problem with the position you seem to be taking
There are actually a few problems. The first one is that you are trying to take issue with a fully qualified statement that is referred to as a guess. The second one is that you do not offer anything to refute what I am saying. In plain English I am saying that the importance to the general populace of religion has declined over the past few centuries. This is something that we know to be true (and you know damned well it is true as well) but we cannot accurately say to what degree. What part of that didn't you understand?
posted by
gomedome
on April 10, 2008 at 6:11 PM
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Re: So basically, you're making an assumption, guessing the data because none
p.s. anyone that is serious about the study of statistics doesn't use an opinion poll.
posted by
FineYoungSinger
on April 10, 2008 at 3:58 PM
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So basically, you're making an assumption, guessing the data because none
exists to support it, and then making assumptions regarding changes in your guessed data?
posted by
FineYoungSinger
on April 10, 2008 at 3:57 PM
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FineYoungSinger - did you read this post? I don't list statistics anywhere
Instead I made an educated guess using percentages which is carefully qualified in several ways. Aside from stating right out that the numbers are potentially innacurate and that it was a guess, I also qualify very specifically who I am speaking of: "true believers and practitioners" . . . The keyword here is "true" or people that actually do believe, an important qualification because a percentage of all religious groups have persons claiming to be adherants for reasons other than belief. If you care to re-phrase the question and ask how I arrived at my guess, it is very simple; I took typical polling numbers and used common sense.
If polling numbers tell us that the demographic of non religious and non believers lands somewhere in the 15%-20% range today. It is not unreasonable to inflate this number to 30% to include those who are simply along for the ride, if qualifications are used when doing so. HERE is a typical religious demographic breakdown. On the other side of the guess, we simply do not know what percentage of the populaces living in theocratic influenced societies truly believed a few centuries ago, but history does give us an idea of what percentage were religious practitioners. Basically everyone.
The point is not the numbers, it is the dramatic change over time.
posted by
gomedome
on April 8, 2008 at 3:15 PM
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gomedome...
I have to ask you---what are your sources for the figures you present here? Normally when I see an essay listing statstics, it's nice to see where they came from.
posted by
FineYoungSinger
on April 8, 2008 at 12:01 PM
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I agree -- perceptions have to change
many have left the traditional explanation. What may seem odd is that many of these (those I have met) are quite satisfied with their lives in general.
posted by
Xeno-x
on April 8, 2008 at 8:30 AM
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Re: Re: AardigeAfrikaner - Re: Toying with numbers: Booboo
...guesses
and "can only"...
posted by
AardigeAfrikaner
on April 7, 2008 at 4:53 PM
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Re: AardigeAfrikaner - Re: Toying with numbers
I will always remain childlike. Comments on your blog are not only read by yourself and others who leave comments. You inspire me and if you feel insulted by my childlike behaviour, well sometimes life sucks. I'm a bit deaf to insults myself (I have been desensitized thoroughly) and sometimes say things not intended as insults. My wife can confirm that
. As for the "if only"'s you keep on complaining about: If only you could look past my if onlies' and keep on writing the interesting stuff you do...
I know all statistics are planned and informed guesses "can only" be used as guidelines "if only" we all realized that much.
Once again: I enjoy your blog - keep on thinking free!
posted by
AardigeAfrikaner
on April 7, 2008 at 4:51 PM
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AardigeAfrikaner - Re: Toying with numbers
Reading your comment, one can't help but take offence, though I am sure that was not your intention and that you actually believe what you are saying. I'm also assuming that you won't mind if I begin referring to you as a Mennonite, I just picked a Christian based denomination because in comment you mentioned that you were ". . in the Jesus camp . . " Hey, why not? I've mentioned a number of times that I am not an atheist but not only do you insist on referring to me as an atheist, you come up with an idiotic assumption that my loose chronicle of the shift in belief demographics worldwide is somehow longing for an "atheist paradise"
As for the numbers; arguing against a point that is completely qualified by statements such as follows, amongst other points of qualification, is hardly an argument: "Guesses can only be used to illustrate the dramatic change as there is no real way of knowing what percentage of the population are true believers and practitioners both then and now."
China is the random element through this historical period but I have discounted for the evolution of Chinese beliefs into what exists today. Religious beliefs in China today are a complex mix of Chinese folk religion, Taoism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Communist anti-religious sentiment. Again, refer to the qualifiers.
This is the line I found the most entertaining in your comment: "If all religious people will somehow stand together (seems highly improbable now, but who knows) you may find yourself in a spot of trouble."
Aside from being another childlike "if only", what spot of trouble are you referring to? Greater exclusion and social ostracism, a more pronounced call for conformity of belief, or increased harrassment from a believing majority? My point being; how can someone be a proponent of a belief system that does not see all that is wrong with a warning such as this?
posted by
gomedome
on April 7, 2008 at 7:46 AM
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Purple_Mermaid11 - thanx for stopping in
posted by
gomedome
on April 7, 2008 at 7:11 AM
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Toying with numbers
I'm not sure where you got your figures from but they look very western (European & American) to me. At this time that represents around 1.6 billion of around 6.6 billion people (this is an estimate since births and deaths are not catalogued accurately in many developing countries). The percentage of the population of earth representing the "developed" world is not even 25. You say 30 % of the 25% are not true believers. That makes it 7.5% of todays population on the planet since most people in developing nations are still following their inherited traditions or have converted to Christianity or Islam who are actually gaining in percentages in Africa for instance. China throws some major spanners in the works here so lets put it back at 30% to accommodate an irreligious china and disregard the increasing religious outbursts. UN demographers predict that by 2050 (if we have no big wars, plagues etc) the world population will be around 10 to 12 billion. The developed world's population at an estimated 2.9 billion will then represent 29% of the population (taken as 10 billion) which is slightly more than it is now. If the percentage of believers decrease even more you will still have around 60 - 70% believers of which about 6-7 billion (equal to todays total) or more people are (ill informed by your standards) believers and probably very hungry and pissed off if they see the rise in lack of faith and continued prosperity in the developed countries to whom they will by then owe their very lives if the current trend in loans and lack of payments continue. No doomsday theory in here, just toying with the highly probable. I think you have a long way to go before atheist paradise will arrive and religion die out. Especially when a lot of these people are actually experiencing events (which you may call psychotic) that convince them of the validity of their worldviews and some will even die for their believes. If all religious people will somehow stand together (seems highly improbable now, but who knows) you may find yourself in a spot of trouble. Once again I'm not trying to scare you. Just playing with numbers and human nature as we have come to know it over the last couple of thousand years.
posted by
AardigeAfrikaner
on April 7, 2008 at 4:06 AM
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hello dear....just catching up a little...thank you for such an engaging read...
posted by
__Purple_Mermaid11__
on April 7, 2008 at 12:52 AM
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