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macbilly1
Thanks for your astute observations. I agree that it is possible to over analyze the game. Part of the problem is ascribing to much importance to stats that are insignificant by themselves. Another part is that we have no truly reliable stats to adequately describe certain aspects of pitching and fielding. Finally, we forget that basing on decisions strictly on stats, even situational stats, is not much better than flipping a coin. That's why great poker players, though aware of the odds, often win big because of a gut feeling -- knowing when to play against the odds because of the situation at hand and the other players at the table.
I sympathize with all Red Sox fans. My team, the Tigers, almost established a new record for ineptitude. Maybe you should send a little sympathy my way.
I'm thinking about writing a piece comparing Bonds to Ted Williams. Stay tuned. I don't necessarily believe that one has a significant edge on the other.
posted by
notapoet
on November 23, 2003 at 3:04 AM
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Baseball, the great American pastime
Great post, I am an avid fan of the game but not a big stats guy. I look at players and their strengths and weaknesses and the contributions made to the team. As a long-time leader of staf, I can't help but evaluate heavily on teamwork and selflessness over individual achievement.
I am a Red Sox fan (pity me please) and we are in the unique position of trading a Nomar for a A-Rod. One great shortstop for another, a even swap on many levels. I watched Mo Vaughn play for many years in Boston. He had some good years and some bad ones. Our new management is into stats. OBP, heavy analysis on every level. But the fans look at it two-fold. We respect the statistical approach of Larry Lucchino and Theo Epstein but we have also witnessed amazing seasons from nobodies who were great fits to our team. This past season was highlighted by three very average players before they were picked up. Bill Miller, Kevin Millar andTodd Walker. They arguably contributed more than the big money players Manny, Pedro and Nomar. Because they were great clubhouse guys who inspired others.
But numbers do not lie. had Grady Little paid attention to real numbers and not his instincts we may have made the world series.
I enjoy your posts, keep it up.
mac
posted by
macbilly1
on November 22, 2003 at 8:37 AM
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Warren
No one really wins friendly baseball arguments. No matter how hard people like me try to objectify sports, it still comes down to subjective evaluations of who is better or the best. Its just a helluva lot of fun trying to justify your subjective judgements with statistics. Its possible to justify putting almost 100 guys in the Hall of Fame who will probably never get there. Its also possible to argue that at least a third of the guys enshrined in Cooperstown don't really belong there. I look forward to many future discussions about who was, or is, better than who.
Enjoy your night out.
posted by
notapoet
on November 21, 2003 at 6:24 PM
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Well, even though I probably won't ever be able to beat you in a baseball game of stats, it most obviously appears, I will still be more than willing to have much further debate with you on some of these topics in the near future... Hopefully my knowledge and reasoning will prove to be a worthy opponent for our ultimate baseball statistician. unfortunately I am heading out for the night and will have to pick this up tomorrow... untill then...
posted by
Warren
on November 21, 2003 at 5:54 PM
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