Comments on Professional Statistician: 2004 Vote Requires Study Before Certification

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Sure...

...most the time the obvious occurs to me.  Not always, though, so thanks for asking.

It is extremely rare for an exit poll to be wrong, all things being equal.  This election saw six election polls going wrong.  I've worked around statistics for a long time and there's no way that that can happen without something extraordinary taking place. 

Having conservatives show up in record numbers without there being any hint of such a groundswell in the polls both before and after the election.  The data do not support the final result.

And if they can monkey with the Presidential numbers, they can certainly monkey around with the legislature votes, too.

posted by Volaar on November 10, 2004 at 7:22 PM | link to this | reply

Then what explains the "surge" in the vote for
the Democratic candidate. We were told by everyone all along more people would vote in this election than ever before. And we saw that. John Kerry got many more votes than Al Gore got. Why did you not mention that in your blog? Did you ever think maybe more people just voted for George Bush this time around? The Republicans gained seats in the House, Senate, and other races, such as governorships. Did it ever occur to you that the conservatives may have come out and voted in record numbers all across the land?

posted by sarooster on November 10, 2004 at 4:41 PM | link to this | reply