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Friday, October 29, 2004

Election Predictions: Results from 401 National Polls!

This is the ultimate election prediction. I looked at the polls by ALL the pollsters. These stats include polls from the left, right, and in between. The analysis looks at the election from a few different angles. My conclusion is that the race is extremely close, with Kerry having the lead. If Nader wasn't in the race, Kerry would be up by over 1% easily. One important number I notice is that Bush's average, which does not get hurt by Nader, is way below 50% overall, and does not reach 50% in even one pollster's average. That is an indicator of serious weakness when the incumbent cannot poll 50% even though the third party candidate is taking votes from the challenger. I believe we are in for an election surprise with Kerry winning by more than expected by the media. I'm willing to posit that Kerry will win by more than 1.5 million votes, plus the electoral college.