The reality of the technology industry maturing, growth slowing
A Wall Street Journal column by Lee Gomes on the conflict between Moore's Law and Ford's Law, which he names after Heny Ford -- in mature industries, growth percentage is measured on one hand.
The world of high technology is famous for Moore's Law, which holds that the number of transistors on a computer chip doubles every year or two. Moore's Law is a source of perpetual optimism for the kingdom of computer hardware. With any given gizmo, wait a few months, and it will either be cheaper or faster or smaller -- or some combination of the three.
...When Ethernet, the networking system that connects the machines in your office and home, made its debut in the mid-1970s, it could transfer one MP3 file in about two seconds. Early in the summer, the industry finished the specs for 10 Gigabit Ethernet, which transmits 500 MP3s a second.
...For a while, it seemed as though Moore's Law applied to PC sales, too. During the height of the Internet boom, annual growth rates were above 25%.
...During the past five years, for example, the domestic demand for cars increased by an average of 2.7% a year. And those were good years. This year, PCs, graying around the temples, will be lucky to beat even the auto industry's meager average. Goldman Sachs says business spending on technology will rise just 3% or so this year.