John Edwards for President?: Politico: Edwards' Case

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Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Politico: Edwards' Case

Here's why Edwards can win. According to this email, as printed in Politico, from Edwards senior advisor Chris Chafe:

John Edwards started this campaign having won or placed second in 52 of Iowa’s 99 counties, and we have held onto and built from our support from 04 across the state. The importance of organizational strength is why it matters that the Edwards campaign has operations in all 99 counties, and that we have identified and trained 90% of our precinct captains, four weeks out from caucus night. We have over 20 offices open with 150 staff on the ground and reinforcements arriving daily. We have the most sophisticated, targeted, well resourced labor operation in several cycles.

...John Edwards is winning the polls of Iowans with caucus experience, and he holds a key 10 point lead over the field as the “second choice” among likely caucus goers. That item reflected a dead heat two to three weeks ago, and we believe the strength of our ads is manifesting itself in this new spike for Edwards as the second choice candidate, which will make a huge difference when other candidates with less[e]r operations and support in all 99 counties fail to meet threshold.

Veterans of the Iowa caucus process know that 90% of caucus attendees are over 35 years old and have prior caucus experience, with over 70% being over age 50. Young people do not have a strong history of attending the caucus, despite claims by the Dean campaign in 04 and the Obama campaign this year that they could be a deciding force. John Edwards leads among men, and the horse race among women polled remains fluid and close, despite the Clinton campaign’s extensive outreach to women there and nationally.

There is no doubt that Senator Clinton’s campaign is in serious trouble.

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